The 'new politics' is being put to the test in Spain, where Podemos hopes to show that Syriza was not an anomaly

The Indignados protests in Madrid, in May 2011, that began the decline of the establishment that opened the way for this tight election race. Photograph: Puerta del Sol, Madrid, 2011 by Pablo Garcia Romano (License) (Cropped)

All indications are that the general election in Spain is likely to mark the end of that country's two-party system (Scarpetta, 2015). Following the trend in other European countries, the political establishment is struggling for credibility and that has opened up the possibility of multi-party politics and substantial change.

With four parties running close in a tight race there is a chance, there is a chance that casting a ballot can make a much bigger kind of change than usual. For the Left, this situation presents an opportunity to find out whether the 'new politics', an experiment in decentralised democratic movements, can be effective in practice - the answer to which could have a huge impact far from Spain (Jones, 2015).

To do so, the 'new politics' - symbolised by Podemos - has to prove that it can win, up against a political establishment in Spain that, like most countries in Europe, has settled into a comfortable pattern. After Franco's death, and the restoration of democracy, Spain's political system was been dominated by the Partido Popular (People's Party, PP), founded by followers of Franco, and the Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol (Socialist Workers' Party, PSOE).

Yet the cyclical passing of power from one traditional party to the other was rocked by the financial crisis. The struggles of Spain under the subsequent strain of bailouts and austerity, largely implemented by the Centre-Left PSOE (Sanchez-Cuenca, 2015), led to the the Indignados movement. People took to the streets in huge numbers and the scale of their discontent forced Premier Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to stand down and resulted in PSOE being voted out of office, to be replaced by the People's Party (Tremlett, 2011).

However, while the PP took power, the cycle appears to have been broken by the Indignados movement transforming into two new challengers - parties dependent upon popular movements rather than the old establishment and both, in their own way, standing against the traditional political class.

These 'popular' parties - Podemos ('We Can', on the Left) and Ciudadanos ('Citizens', on the Right) - despite roots in the same movement, have some very apparent differences from each other, evident in the way progressives are split in their opinions of the two movements. Liberals, on the one hand, seem to want to dismiss Podemos as a militant Hard Left faction (Petts, 2015), while on the other side, democrats & socialists talk of Ciudadanos as corrupt capitalists preaching with prejudice and bigotry (Shea Baird, 2015).

Podemos, born fairly directly out of the spirit of the Indignados, enjoyed early success in the EU parliament elections which was followed up in May this year at the regional and municipal elections. Victories were won in Barcelona, Cadiz and La Coruna, amongst others, and most notably in Madrid - where conservatives had held control for 20 years (BBC, 2015).

In these places, candidates backed by Podemos had stood for participatory democracy along with the Left-wing staples of feminism, environmentalism and opposition to austerity. These victories were hailed as a justification of the decentralised approach, with campaigner candidates backed by active citizens who had engaged with people and debated on the streets and in the civic spaces (Colau, 2015).

Yet behind the scenes there is an internal struggle, between two identities, that threatens the 'new politics' image (Ferreira, 2015). One of those identities is that of the horizontal grassroots civic movement, with its citizen's assemblies. The other is symbolised by Pablo Iglesias, the national party's leader, and the faith he places in the power of singular charismatic leaders, particularly himself, and in media savvy (Williams, 2015).

The danger of this charismatic leadership is that it ties the fate and fortunes, ideals and policies, of a whole movement to the personal popularity of one individual - which can have wildly varying, and often fluctuating, results. It also risks reducing a broad popular movement into little more than a fan club, which in turn risks taking the impetus, the momentum, out of the hands of the broader movement upon which the 'new politics' depends.

Ciudadanos, by contrast is much more conventional, supporting small state policies and anti-corruption, and claims to be a centre and liberal party (Kassam, 2015). Its leader Albert Rivera has compared himself to Matteo Renzi, the Democrat in Italy, and to Nick Clegg, the former Liberal Democrat leader in the UK (Shea Baird, 2015). In practice, though, accusations of corruption and prejudice paint a picture too similar to the negative image encircling UKIP in the UK for the comfort of a progressive (Finnigan, 2015) - with claims of patronising attitudes towards women and connections between the party and Far-Right politics

Whatever their differences, both of these parties have found fertile ground and plenty of material with which to express their, and their followers', discontent. Spain's situation, following the financial crisis, has been dire. Unemployment has escalated to around 25% generally and for the young to over 50% (Navarro, 2014), with a lack of job security facing those who manage to find jobs, (Jones, 2015).

Those facts are represented in national polling, which has all four of the chief parties in a close race, hovering around 20%, more or less (Nardelli, 2015). The People's Party have been averaging around 25%, the PSOE at 21%, Podemos at 20%, and Ciudadanos at 17%. The chance is clearly present for the Radical Left to pull off another extraordinary result.

As for deciding on a government in Spain after the election, that is likely to be a messy affair. Neither of the new parties, even where they are close to the old parties on policy matters, is likely to want to become too entangled with the old establishment. Yet Spain's proportional electoral system will demand some compromises.

Ideologically, this election is asking big questions of the Radical Left, that have little direct concern with who governs Spain. Across Europe, progressives will want the election to provide the answer as to whether the 'new politics' is effective in what must seem like fertile ground - even with rivals Ciudadanos crowding Podemos' political space.

It is of course true that Syriza showed that the Radical Left can win, regardless of how you interpret the struggles that followed. Yet that was a solitary win in extraordinary circumstances - or so it might be dismissed while it remains a singular event. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour leadership win added to the Left's tally, but what the Left's experiment in decentralised, democratic movement politics needs is a major electoral victory that can follow up on Syriza's success.

In Spain, without some major breakthrough for Podemos, the PP and Ciudadanos on the Right will probably have just enough votes to keep progressives out of office - meaning more austerity and more status quo. For Europe, Podemos failing to make a breakthrough could make life hard for the 'new politics' movements across Europe, like the one supporting Corbyn, that want to reshape their societies around active citizens, engaged with politics and supporting broader participation and co-operation.

Building a genuine, lasting, progressive alternative in Europe can only be done if parties and movements can reach people and get them politically engaged. Winning elections is only a small part. Achieving substantive changes requires the public to be engaged, informed and empowered in a way that is only being offered at present by the Radical Left parties and their 'new politics'. From that perspective, progressives - whether Liberal, Democrat or Socialist, Moderate or Radical - have an interest in finding out whether Podemos, following Syriza, unlocked a way to re-engage citizens with their democracies.

References

Vincenzo Scarpetta's 'Spain heads to its most unpredictable election in decades: Spaniards will head to the polls on Sunday in what is easily the most unpredictable Spanish general election in decades - Open Europe’s Vincenzo Scarpetta previews this unprecedented four-way race, looking at the key issues at stake and the possible post-election scenarios'; on Open Europe; 16 December 2015.

Owen Jones' 'Spain’s election will be felt across the whole continent: The country’s political convulsions and the rise of Podemos show that the fight against austerity did not die with Syriza in Greece'; in The Guardian; 18 December 2015.

Ignacio Sanchez-Cuenca's 'How Spain's left turned on Zapatero: Leftist voters have reacted to the Spanish prime minister's abandonment of the PSOE's social democratic principles'; in The Guardian; 24 May 2015.

Giles Tremlett's 'Spanish election: convincing victory for People's party - Conservative opposition leader Mariano Rajoy beats Socialists' Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero'; in The Guardian; 20 November 2015.

Martin Petts' 'Spain’s historic liberal opportunity'; on LibDemVoice; 17 December 2015.

Kate Shea Baird's 'The naked truth about Ciudadanos, Spain's counter-revolutionaries: Ciudadanos have been portrayed by the media as the 'Podemos of the right'. However, an analysis of the party and its policies reveal this is far from the case'; on Open Democracy; 5 April 2015.

'Spanish elections: Podemos and Ciudadanos make gains'; on the BBC; 25 May 2015.

Ada Colau's 'First we take Barcelona... This spring, Barcelona has become, once again, the battleground for the radical soul of Europe'; on Open Democracy; 20 May 2015.

David Ferreira's 'With Spain’s election looming, can Podemos do it? In the run-up to Spain’s general election, David Ferreira looks at the factors behind Podemos’ failure to sustain its initial surge of support'; in Red Pepper magazine; December 2015.

Zoe Williams' 'Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias on why he's like Jeremy Corbyn: "He brings ideas that can solve problems" - This week's Spanish elections will be a major test, but the leftist party has already proved it can capture the popular imagination without snatching the centre ground. Does Iglesias' brand of radicalism provide a blueprint for the Labour leader?'; in The Guardian; 15 December 2015.

Ashifa Kassam's 'Centre party Ciudadanos throws Spanish election results into question: Two-party dominance of Socialists and People’s party could be nearing an end with rise of Albert Rivera’s anti-separatist party that is campaigning for change'; in The Guardian; 10 December 2015.

Christopher Finnigan's 'Spain’s new centre-right party is not a liberal guardian of the country’s future'; in Disclaimer Magazine; 15 December 2015.

Vicente Navarro's 'The Disastrous Labor And Social Reforms In Spain'; on Social Europe; 3 March 2014.

Alberto Nardelli's 'Spain election 2015: a guide to the parties, polls and electoral system: Sunday’s election is expected to put an end to the dominance of two parties and see big gains for Podemos and Ciudadanos – here’s all you need to know'; in The Guardian; 16 December 2015.