Shift in Canadian federal election from three party race to two party polemic shows importance of electoral reform in ensuring a truly representative politics

Polling suggests Justin Trudeau has brought the Liberals back into contention from their worst ever result in 2011. Photograph: Toronto Centre Campaign Office Opening with Chrystia Freeland and Justin Trudeau by Joseph Morris (License) (Cropped)

As Canadians go to the polls, the tight three-way race, in which the Canadian federal election campaign has been tied, finally seems to have broken in favour of the Liberals and Justin Trudeau (Woolf, 2015). With momentum pushing towards a minority or possibly even a majority government, there are signs that the well known affects of the first past the post electoral system are, at the last, making themselves felt.

Over the final weeks, polling has seen the Liberal Party vote rise by a very significant ten points since the summer to 37% - with some polls even indicating support as high 40% and with momentum still moving their way - while left of centre rivals the New Democrats (NDP) has fallen back (Grenier, 2015).

With a guarded acknowledgement of the huge impact that 'Shy Tories' can have (Grenier, 2015{2}), the polling, the momentum and the impact of tactical voting all appear to favour a Liberal victory and a progressive leaning government (Grenier, 2015{3}) - whether a minority or coalition (Gollom, 2015).

And yet, it isn't hard to be sceptical about the polling shift towards a polemic division between two parties just as an election under a polemicising electoral system approaches. The majority of the campaign has shown that Canada is a country with diverse political ideas, split at least three ways between Liberals, Conservatives and Democrats - with other groups like Greens or Regionalists and Nationalists holding influence amongst certain demographics.

Quebec has a long history of producing its own distinct electoral results, with an influential Nationalist movement. Yet Quebec has seen its Nationalist government displaced by the Liberals just last year, despite polling suggesting that a majority Parti Quebecois government was possible.

At a different end of the scale, traditionally conservative Alberta saw a huge upset of its own this year. Alberta's so-called 'Progressive' Conservative Party majority government was swept away by the slow rise of the 'alternative' conservative Wildrose Party to become the official opposition and the surprise landslide majority victory for the New Democrats.

Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party of Canada, has been keen to point out the strength of her party amongst certain demographics. May stressed that the Greens are bringing many disaffected voters back to politics, and creating an entry point for younger voters, that is increasing voters turnouts rather than taking votes away from other parties.

What all of these factors tell us, including all of the peculiarities and upsets, is that a more representative electoral system is needed. The tight, divided race that marked the early part of the federal election campaign shows that political beliefs are clearly spread across many positions.Yet the electoral system forces voters to prioritise, even to pick least worst options, rather than make the politicians themselves listen, compromise and act like elected representatives.

While polls have shown for months that there is a clear progressive majority, split fairly evenly between Liberals and New Democrats, in practice that may transform into a government and parliament dominated by Liberals with the New Democrat voice much reduced.

The pressures that lead to these distortions reduce the representation of a diverse citizenry - leading only to disillusion amongst voters who feel their choices are narrowed - and, when they produce majorities, shut down parliamentary debate. Voters should not be forced to realign away from their beliefs and prioritise, just to pick partisan sides in a politics reduced to an artificial game that is context-restricted and held hostage by polemic factional disputes.

A progressive society is one that embraces diversity, embraces debate, and rejects polemic division. Progressives need to champion an alternative system that rejects the artificial settling of splits between parties and supports true representation.

References

Nicky Woolf's 'Canadian election: Justin Trudeau's Liberals tipped to win nailbiting poll'; in The Guardian; 19 October 2015.

Eric Grenier's 'Poll Tracker: Are the Liberals now eating into Conservative support? After eating the NDP's lunch, the Liberals are hungrily eyeing Conservative votes'; on CBC News; 16 October 2015.

Eric Grenier's 'Poll Tracker: Liberals poised for win barring Conservative surprise - Long and winding campaign has turned a three-way race into a contest with a clear leader'; on CBC News; 18 October 2015{2}.

Eric Grenier's 'Final federal projection: Likely Liberal victory, possible Conservative upset'; on ThreeHundredEight.com; 19 October 2015{3}.

Mark Gollom's 'Mulcair and Trudeau have their differences, but can agree on need to turf Harper: Should Harper win a minority of the seats, all party leaders have vowed to oust him'; on CBC News; 14 October 2015.